Cuomo has no shame

The governor of NY is criticizing the Florida governor for reopening his state:

“I say to them all, look at the numbers. You played politics with this virus and you lost.”

This from a guy who forced nursing homes to accept COVID positive patients which likely doubled the total deaths in his state. Meanwhile, Florida protected their nursing homes and had a fraction of the deaths. This nonsense he’s blabbing about has to do with cases, but we already know there are millions of cases of people who had mild or no symptoms. Who cares? You test more you get more cases. Deaths are what matter and Cuomo failed his state miserably. The fact that he would criticize other states is disgusting. He would resign in shame immediately if he wasn’t an evil sociopath.

Model update 6.25.20

Not a huge change since last time. Obviously the June CDC data is way behind, but I find it interesting that the April and May numbers differ much at all. This model was updated in late June with these numbers. You’d think April and most of May would just about match.

Model Update 6.23.20

The IHME model apparently thinks there will be a second wave of Coronavirus, and the downward trend in deaths will slow and then start rising again in July without ever falling below 600 deaths in a single day. They’re now projecting 201,129 COVID deaths by 10/1. Seems as though the theory is that relaxing social distancing will lead to more deaths. Should be interesting to test this out. Hopefully they’re wrong because obviously we don’t want people to die, and assuming politicians don’t reinstate lockdowns, that would suggest they’re unnecessary. After all the original models assumed because of lockdowns we’d be down to almost 0 deaths by now.

I’m going to compare the model as of today 6/23 to the CDC data moving forward. There’s a lag in the CDC data, but at least they let me export it easily.

NJ LTC deaths update 6.22.20

Didn’t get a chance to update this over the weekend, but still seeing the same trends. LTC deaths are growing and accounting for almost all the increase in COVID deaths.

Since 5/21 the total confirmed COVID deaths have increased by 2,284 in NJ. The total confirmed LTC deaths in NJ have increased by 1,885. That’s 83% of the total increase.

Excess deaths update 6.19.20

Haven’t looked at this in awhile. Still seems strange to me that excess deaths were higher than COVID deaths in April, but in May there have been more reported COVID deaths than excess deaths. Makes me think maybe a lot of deaths reported in May really occurred in April? Did this virus run its course even faster than we previously thought? Even if you are a believer in lockdowns (I am not) wouldn’t that suggest we should have gotten back to normal life sooner?

USA totals:

Georgia slowly started getting back to life in late April whereas Michigan and Illinois (all 3 have similar populations & pop density) stayed locked down through most of May and continue to have a lot of restrictions. Doesn’t seem as though Georgia suffered any consequences from this policy:

Similar conclusions can be drawn when comparing Florida to New York:

A look at New Jersey:

NJ LTC deaths update 6.18.20

I’m starting to wonder if anyone in NJ is still dying of Corona or if they’re just going through all the deaths in nursing homes over the past 3 months and flipping the cause to COVID so they have something to report and justify the remaining lockdown restrictions in place.