Do lockdowns really work?

I’m obviously very skeptical. Seems like it just hits general regions of the country the same no matter what politicians do. Here’s a look based on regions used by Health & Human Services:

Kansas City
San Fransisco

Total deaths comparison

The CDC data is frustratingly slow to come in. We’re seeing the big spike in COVID deaths being reported in November. I’m very interested to see how high that pushes the overall death toll. In October it appears that maybe for the first time since the lockdowns started, we’re seeing an overall death count in line with previous years. That would obviously be good news, and I would hope it continues. If it does, we can then speculate on what the November COVID spike really meant after the fact. Right now, it’s tough to have an informed opinion.

Worldometers overcounting deaths again

They base their numbers on reported dates. So it seems like as deaths “spike” the states have a hard time keeping up with the reporting. So in July Worldometers was undercounting deaths, but they were going up so it was still all fear porn all the time.

Then when they started going down, Worldometers was getting all deaths they missed from back in July so the decline in August/September didn’t look as sharp as it actually was. So they can keep the fear going better than if the true curve was really being represented.

Even as deaths have risen in October, they’ve managed to be higher than the CDC which goes off date of death rather than reported date. Remains to be seen if the CDC is just behind or if Worldometers is continuing to “harvest” old deaths from the spring and summer.

I believe a similar issue is going on with “cases.”

Fresh round of Covid hysteria

Flu season is upon us and in 2020 that means the COVID hysteria has been ramped up to a level not seen since April. I’m sure it’s just a coincidence this happened at the exact same moment the media called the election for Biden. No one has any time to question any of the seeming “irregularities” surrounding the voting in certain swing states. No, it’s all COVID, all the time. That’s all your allowed to concern yourself with. Avoiding the plague that Trump unleashed on the planet with his insufficiently authoritarian response.

But will the numbers allow the hysterics to pump this up to the levels we saw in the spring? Cases are “surging” but as more people have positive tests and live to tell the tail of mild or no symptoms, will the public continue to cower in fear? The answer is probably yes, but let’s take a fresh look at deaths anyway.

Here is the all-cause weekly death numbers for the last few years:

Still a bit higher than normal up through week 41. How much of that is due to COVID and how much the lockdowns, is up for debate. It remains to be seen if the “excess” deaths continue much longer. Remember, many of the most vulnerable died back in earlier outbreaks. Those may have been a lot of the same people that would have died during this flu season if they hadn’t been exposed to COVID earlier in the year.

But let’s look at excess death trends:

Seems like for most of the year, there were far more excess deaths than COVID deaths. This indicates that lockdowns may be causing deaths in their own right. Either that or COVID deaths are being undercounted which seems very unlikely, at least after the initial so-called “first wave.”

But in recent weeks it looks like maybe we’re starting to see more COVID deaths than excess deaths? Might be a time lag. COVID deaths getting reported quicker than others for some reason. Or is it that they’re slapping a COVID designation on deaths that would have happened anyway? Time will tell. Intensified lockdowns could cause more non-COVID deaths as well so it’s a real mess.

Election shenanigans

Seems like as I type this, Michigan is the only state bothering to count votes today and almost all the additional ones are going to Biden. Suspicious?

My election map I posted in September held up pretty well. So far only Arizona was wrong and that may have been called early if what the Trump partisans on twitter are saying has any basis in reality. I also failed to realize Nebraska would give one elector to Biden.

Of course, if I was only wrong on Arizona/Nebraska and right everywhere else that’s enough to give Biden the presidency.

Whole thing’s a damn joke. Maybe our country needs to just break apart and stop living and dying by this corrupt process.