Model Update 6.23.20

The IHME model apparently thinks there will be a second wave of Coronavirus, and the downward trend in deaths will slow and then start rising again in July without ever falling below 600 deaths in a single day. They’re now projecting 201,129 COVID deaths by 10/1. Seems as though the theory is that relaxing social distancing will lead to more deaths. Should be interesting to test this out. Hopefully they’re wrong because obviously we don’t want people to die, and assuming politicians don’t reinstate lockdowns, that would suggest they’re unnecessary. After all the original models assumed because of lockdowns we’d be down to almost 0 deaths by now.

I’m going to compare the model as of today 6/23 to the CDC data moving forward. There’s a lag in the CDC data, but at least they let me export it easily.

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