Overcounting COVID deaths?

Something seems to have shifted in October where COVID deaths began matching “excess” deaths almost exactly. Previously Excess deaths were much higher than the COVID death counts.

So what could account for this?

  1. Lockdowns were loosened enough to stop causing excess deaths beyond COVID. People stopped being afraid to go to the doctor. Less suicides and drug overdoses. Less social isolation. Etc.
  2. They were previously undercounting COVID deaths and now they’re not.
  3. They’re overcounting COVID deaths.

The early trend for late November into December is that there are far more COVID deaths than Excess Deaths. It remains to be seen whether it truly plays out that way. There is a painfully long lag on the data. But assuming it does, what are the possibilities for that?

  1. Deaths would have been below average if not for COVID. This is possible and at some point, deaths will probably drop below average since many of the sick and elderly people who would have died in 2021, died in 2020 due to COVID.
  2. All the restrictions in place to fight COVID are lowering the deaths due to other causes. Although why wasn’t that happening before now?
  3. They’re overcounting COVID deaths.

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