Model update

OK, so they have not changed anything from yesterday. Same peak, same projected overall death rate. They also still have the same projected death rate for yesterday of 1,036. According to this site, the actual number of deaths yesterday was only 968 so it looks like they overshot by 68 (although still in their rather large uncertainty window of 926-1,130). Also, the death rate was down from the April 1 count of 1,049. The model thought there would only be 900 on that day so they actually undershot it by 149.

This would be great news if deaths started declining now rather than mid-April. But I’m not sure 968 will stick. It’s quite possible they’ll get more deaths reported from yesterday and update that number.

Please note that my tracking of these semi-official numbers does not mean I completely buy into the death totals. As I’ve stated before I think doctors are likely being encouraged to list anybody with a positive test or maybe even just corona-like symptoms as a COVID-19 death regardless of any underlying conditions they may have had that contributed to the death.

I also don’t think that 93,000 deaths of mainly sick and elderly people, as tragic as they are, warrant shutting down an entire country of 327 million people indefinitely. That has the potential to lead to extreme suffering on a large swath of the population including additional deaths of younger people from suicides, malnutrition, lack of medical care, violence, etc.

But I think it’s worth seeing if the medical “authorities” in this country can make these models work even on their own statistical terms. After all, they’ve based a worldwide panic and immense economic destruction on these models that so far have been inaccurate.

How are they defining COVID-19 deaths?

So on 3/24 the CDC issued this guidance to physicians:

COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.

So do they really have any evidence that all these deaths were caused by COVID-19? Are hospitals being encouraged to jump to conclusions to inflate the threat? I mean they’re telling them to list it as the cause of death based on assumptions???

Deaths began to jump around the time the guidance was issued.

Here are the death totals starting on 3/19-3/27 (I assume it can sometimes take a few days to issue a death certificate):

72, 47, 57, 126, 116, 158, 230, 266, 386

So 3/22 saw a big spike and then another big jump on 3/25 Is that just a coincidence? It could be, but someone needs to go in and examine all of these death certificates and see how many actually tested positive for Corona and what other diseases they may have had. Is COVID-19 really the killer the media is making it out to be?


Just want to keep track of this since people are saying on twitter they keep changing the models.

OK so here goes. Projected deaths as of today:

April 2: 1,036

April 3: 1,194

April 4: 1,360

April 5: 1,529

April 6: 1,699

April 7: 1,865

April 8: 2,025

April 9: 2,169

April 10: 2,296

April 11: 2,407

April 12: 2,496

April 13: 2,563

April 14: 2,610

April 15: 2,637

April 16: 2,644

April 17: 2,634

April 18: 2,607

April 19: 2,565

April 20: 2,512

April 21: 2,448

April 22: 2,375

April 23: 2,296

April 24: 2,213

April 25: 2,127

April 26: 2,039

April 27: 1,951

April 28: 1,864

April 29: 1,779

April 30: 1,695

May 1: 1,614

May 2: 1,537

May 3: 1,463

May 4: 1,391

May 5: 1,323

May 6: 1,256

May 7: 1,194

May 8: 1,133

May 9: 1,073

May 10: 1,015

May 11: 960

May 12: 908

May 13: 857

May 14: 808

May 15: 761

May 16: 715

May 17: 670

May 18: 628

May 19: 587

May 20: 548

May 21: 511

May 22: 478

May 23: 444

May 24: 414

May 25: 384

May 26: 356

May 27: 329

May 28: 304

May 29: 281

May 30: 261

May 31: 240

Jun 1: 222

Jun 2: 205

Jun 3: 189

Jun 4: 174

Jun 5: 160

Jun 6: 147

Jun 7: 135

Jun 8: 125

Jun 9: 115

Jun 10: 106

Jun 11: 97

Jun 12: 89

Jun 13: 82

Jun 14: 75

Jun 15: 69

Jun 16: 64

Jun 17: 58

Jun 18: 54

Jun 19: 49

Jun 20: 45

Jun 21: 42

Jun 22: 38

Jun 23: 35

Jun 24: 32

Jun 25: 29

Jun 26: 27

Jun 27: 25

Jun 28: 22

Jun 29: 20

Jun 30: 18

Jul 1: 17

Jul 2: 15

Jul 3: 13

Jul 4: 12

Jul 5: 11

Jul 6: 10

Jul 7: 9

Jul 8: 8

Jul 9: 7

Jul 10: 6

Jul 11: 6

Jul 12: 5

Jul 13: 5

Jul 14: 4

Jul 15: 4

Jul 16: 0

So I guess July 17 is the day we can finally leave our home according to President Fauci since on 7/16 the model says deaths should be down to 0.

It’s interesting that the total deaths according to this model is 93,531. A few weeks ago I believe we were being told millions would die. Of course, this 93,531 is supposed to be a result of the lockdowns. In other words, it would have been higher if our leaders hadn’t shut down our entire country. That’s impossible to disprove so we can argue endlessly about that.

But let’s see how far off they were on these models. 93,531 is the projected number, but it can be as high as 177,866 and as low as 39,966. That’s a pretty big range of uncertainty. It gives them a pretty good cushion to come in wherever and still say they were right. But we need to track it anyway and see if they were even remotely close to the real numbers or if the curve went anywhere close to what they projected. If not, then their original estimates of millions or whatever if we did “nothing” are not to be trusted.

I’ll be skeptical no matter what. I’m not convinced every “Corona related death” was really caused by Corona. Or if it killed a lot of very ill patients a few weeks or months sooner than they would have otherwise passed on that it was worth shutting down the country for several months.

But if their models are way off using their own statistics, then we need to hold them accountable and scream our heads off about it for the rest of our lives or until the CDC is completely shut down. Whichever comes first.

Another look at the numbers

The headlines today show that there were over 1,000 deaths from Covid-19 yesterday. It’s the first time we’ve hit that grim milestone. How does that compare to the regular flu?

Two years ago we apparently had a bad flu season (although I don’t recall it being a big story). The 6 month average for estimated daily flu deaths was 358. So on average from October 2018 through March 2019, 358 people died every day. Of course, it wasn’t distributed evenly. I can’t seem to find any good breakdown by month or week, but if we look at how the previous 2017-18 season peaked, we get each month averaging 6 peak days for the whole season. February had 15 of the peak days. That’s 2.5 times above the average

Now I know this is a very rough estimate, but we could probably get an idea of how many people were dying in February by multiplying 358 by 2.5 which is 895. So while this isn’t exact, February of 2019 probably averaged somewhere around 800 or 900 people dying every day from the flu for the entire month. It’s a pretty safe bet it went over 1,000 a number of times.

And the media didn’t monitor the daily flu death count. We weren’t locked in our homes. Our businesses weren’t all shut down.

Just keep some perspective.

Hospitals overburdened?

To follow up on an earlier post questioning the numbers and how it made little sense that hospitals were being overcrowded with Corona patients, it appears some people are posting pictures from hospitals showing empty emergency rooms.

I know some internet pictures and videos don’t necessarily disprove the narrative being pushed on us. But you would think if these hospitals really resembled the war zones we’re being told they are the mainstream media would have some footage to back up the hysteria. Instead, we’re starting to see the opposite.

Numbers game seems fishy

Now I know the idea is that the virus will get worse and NYC will need more beds in the coming weeks than they currently have. So that’s why they’re building tent hospitals and the like. But we’ve been presented with reports for the last week at least that the hospitals are overflowing now. CBS even used a phony picture from Italy to try and scare us. Like most things with this Corona hysteria, it doesn’t add up.

On March 18, Governor Cuomo said New York needs 110,000 hospital beds in 45 days and they only have 53,000. So he said they already had 53,000 beds. As of 3/29 they had 15,904 hospitalized from Corona. I mean I guess maybe 40,000 of the beds were already full and so this pushed them over the edge. But I’m somewhat skeptical. And let’s remember his prediction from March 18. So on May 1, he’s saying they will need 110,000 beds and since they normally get by with 53,000 with no problem, you’d have to assume 60,000 of those at least are Corona cases. So let’s check on May 1 and see how many hospitalizations they have.

And none of this even takes into account that if someone was already in the hospital for some other reason like tuberculosis or heart failure or something, and they give them a Covid-19 test and they’re positive, they magically become a Corona patient. So I’m sure there’s plenty of overlap here.

The numbers don’t add up

I guess I’m missing something. I hear about how deadly and dangerous this pandemic is. Even many commentators I respect that are warning about the State power grab are none the less conceding that this is the most deadly disease in the last hundred years. I know it will get worse at least in numbers of reported cases and deaths (I’m skeptical of the numbers because A: Who knows how accurate the tests are and whether they’re all being administered properly and B: They’re likely counting anyone who tests positive and then dies as having been killed by Covid-19 even if they had lung cancer or something), but so far looking at the numbers reported by our own government, I just can’t see how the hysteria can be justified.

We’re told that this will overwhelm the hospital system. Granted, the majority of cases seem to be in New York City so we’d have to dig into that city’s numbers specifically to see if it’s really an issue. But on a national level? It doesn’t add up. The CDC estimates 140,000 to 810,000 annual hospitalizations from influenza each year. Last year they’re saying it was 490,561-way down from 810,000 the year before. Let’s say that was spread out over 4 months. So that’s 122,000 per month – probably likely to be higher in February than other months, but we’ll use that. There have been 185,159 TOTAL confirmed Coronavirus cases as I write this. And not all of them were hospitalized. How has this totally overburdened our entire healthcare system? What am I missing?

As for deaths? The CDC says there are between 12,000 and 61,000 deaths annually from the Flu. Last year there were 34,157 – down from 61,000 the year before. Deaths from Coronavirus as I write this? 3,773. Now I know they will claim more deaths before it’s over, but we’ve never been locked in our homes for months at a time over a virus.

And the mortality rate? CDC claims fly has a 0.1% mortality rate. They estimate last year 35.5 million people got the flu. and 490,561 died. Now they’ll be able to manipulate this however they want because they estimate the number of flu cases and they’ll estimate the number of Covid-19 cases and use that to calculate the death rate. if you divide current deaths by total current confirmed cases it’s 2%, but we’re told 70% of Americans will get the virus. They may change that and estimate it was a lower percentage when this is all said and done, but it would take 245,000 deaths for that to be even a 0.1% mortality rate. Dr. Fauci was telling us it was “10 times as deadly” so that would mean 2,450,000 deaths. Just remember these numbers and see what they’re saying a month from now.

Obviously I hope the deaths are much lower and I have a feeling they will be. We need to hold our “leaders” accountable for spreading this fear and potentially destroying our way of life if this disease turns out to be less devastating than they told us.

Did Anthony Fauci lie to Congress?

Tom Dilorenzo over at thinks he knew the Coronavirus wasn’t 10 times more deadly than the flu when he stated that a few weeks ago and set off the current madness:

On March 11 Dr. Anthony Fauci famously told a congressional hearing that the COVID-19 virus was “ten times worse” than the seasonal flu.  Then fifteen days later, on March 26, he co-authored an article that was published in the New England Journal of Medicine in which he wrote that the COVID-19 was “no worse” than a “very bad flu” but nothing like SARS or MERSA.

Having been involved in the academic publishing business for the past 41 years, I can say with some authority that the article published in the New England Journal of Medicine was almost certainly submitted to the journal months before March 11, probably many months.  This fact suggests that Fauci knew on March 11 that he was misleading Congress — and the world — about the severity of the coronavirus.