Overcounting COVID deaths?

Something seems to have shifted in October where COVID deaths began matching “excess” deaths almost exactly. Previously Excess deaths were much higher than the COVID death counts.

So what could account for this?

  1. Lockdowns were loosened enough to stop causing excess deaths beyond COVID. People stopped being afraid to go to the doctor. Less suicides and drug overdoses. Less social isolation. Etc.
  2. They were previously undercounting COVID deaths and now they’re not.
  3. They’re overcounting COVID deaths.

The early trend for late November into December is that there are far more COVID deaths than Excess Deaths. It remains to be seen whether it truly plays out that way. There is a painfully long lag on the data. But assuming it does, what are the possibilities for that?

  1. Deaths would have been below average if not for COVID. This is possible and at some point, deaths will probably drop below average since many of the sick and elderly people who would have died in 2021, died in 2020 due to COVID.
  2. All the restrictions in place to fight COVID are lowering the deaths due to other causes. Although why wasn’t that happening before now?
  3. They’re overcounting COVID deaths.

Excess deaths?

The media and politicians are in full-fledged panic mode right now and have half the country whipped up into a frenzy that COVID is on the warpath and it will be even worse than before and it’s all because of evil science deniers. So far this latest “wave” hasn’t produced the excess deaths you would expect given all the hype according to the CDC data:

I imagine there will be more overall deaths reported as we get November data in. But we do need to reserve judgment on just how terrible things really are as we advance into this new flu season.

It’s also interesting how through most of the lockdown period there were more excess deaths than reported COVID deaths. Considering how loose they are with slapping COVID on as many death certificates as possible, this suggests that the lockdowns themselves are causing deaths unrelated to the virus.

Do lockdowns really work?

I’m obviously very skeptical. Seems like it just hits general regions of the country the same no matter what politicians do. Here’s a look based on regions used by Health & Human Services:

Kansas City
San Fransisco

Total deaths comparison

The CDC data is frustratingly slow to come in. We’re seeing the big spike in COVID deaths being reported in November. I’m very interested to see how high that pushes the overall death toll. In October it appears that maybe for the first time since the lockdowns started, we’re seeing an overall death count in line with previous years. That would obviously be good news, and I would hope it continues. If it does, we can then speculate on what the November COVID spike really meant after the fact. Right now, it’s tough to have an informed opinion.

Worldometers overcounting deaths again

They base their numbers on reported dates. So it seems like as deaths “spike” the states have a hard time keeping up with the reporting. So in July Worldometers was undercounting deaths, but they were going up so it was still all fear porn all the time.

Then when they started going down, Worldometers was getting all deaths they missed from back in July so the decline in August/September didn’t look as sharp as it actually was. So they can keep the fear going better than if the true curve was really being represented.

Even as deaths have risen in October, they’ve managed to be higher than the CDC which goes off date of death rather than reported date. Remains to be seen if the CDC is just behind or if Worldometers is continuing to “harvest” old deaths from the spring and summer.

I believe a similar issue is going on with “cases.”

Fresh round of Covid hysteria

Flu season is upon us and in 2020 that means the COVID hysteria has been ramped up to a level not seen since April. I’m sure it’s just a coincidence this happened at the exact same moment the media called the election for Biden. No one has any time to question any of the seeming “irregularities” surrounding the voting in certain swing states. No, it’s all COVID, all the time. That’s all your allowed to concern yourself with. Avoiding the plague that Trump unleashed on the planet with his insufficiently authoritarian response.

But will the numbers allow the hysterics to pump this up to the levels we saw in the spring? Cases are “surging” but as more people have positive tests and live to tell the tail of mild or no symptoms, will the public continue to cower in fear? The answer is probably yes, but let’s take a fresh look at deaths anyway.

Here is the all-cause weekly death numbers for the last few years:

Still a bit higher than normal up through week 41. How much of that is due to COVID and how much the lockdowns, is up for debate. It remains to be seen if the “excess” deaths continue much longer. Remember, many of the most vulnerable died back in earlier outbreaks. Those may have been a lot of the same people that would have died during this flu season if they hadn’t been exposed to COVID earlier in the year.

But let’s look at excess death trends:

Seems like for most of the year, there were far more excess deaths than COVID deaths. This indicates that lockdowns may be causing deaths in their own right. Either that or COVID deaths are being undercounted which seems very unlikely, at least after the initial so-called “first wave.”

But in recent weeks it looks like maybe we’re starting to see more COVID deaths than excess deaths? Might be a time lag. COVID deaths getting reported quicker than others for some reason. Or is it that they’re slapping a COVID designation on deaths that would have happened anyway? Time will tell. Intensified lockdowns could cause more non-COVID deaths as well so it’s a real mess.

We’re supposed to take these assholes seriously?

A few obvious points:

  1. He’s being very unsanitary with this mask that is supposedly protecting him and the’s about to put back on his face to cover up his mouth and nose.
  2. Nothing can be “more” guaranteed than something else. Something is either guaranteed or it isn’t.
  3. Is he really saying masks are “guaranteed” to protect against this virus? If so, then why are there any other restrictions being recommended. It should just be masks and then do whatever you want while your wear it.
  4. We have been constantly told that you wear the mask to protect others, but he just did a complete 180 on that bullshit. So then why do mask proponents care if I wear a mask? They can wear one and be safe so who cares if I catch it?
  5. This guy is a liar and he doesn’t even seem particularly bright, yet he heads the Centers for Disease Control. Remember that the next time the CDC issues any guidance or tries to scare you about some “dangerous” virus that you can’t do anything about.