I know the “protests” going on right now that involve ransacking retail stores and burning down restaurants are in response to the police killing of an unarmed black man. And some of that may well have happened in Minneapolis anyway.
But I really do believe this turned into a nationwide orgy of looting and rioting because of the lockdown. People are bored, frustrated, it’s starting to get hot out.
This was inevitable.
End the damn lockdowns before this whole country burns down.
CNN likes to pretend they’re on the side of “protesters” like we’ve seen rioting the last few days. They rarely miss a chance to stoke race hatred and drive hysteria that they think will hurt Trump or Republicans, or sometimes just white people in general.
Well, maybe they’re getting a taste of their own medicine.
Since 5/21 when NJ started reporting “lab-confirmed” COVID deaths in nursing homes, the increase for overall confirmed deaths have been 382. For LTC residents, 563.
| DATE | TOTAL | LTC REPORTED | % | LTC CONFIRMED | % |
| 5/6/2020 | 8,549 | 4,261 | 49.8% | ||
| 5/7/2020 | 8,549 | 4,261 | 49.8% | ||
| 5/8/2020 | 8,801 | 4,556 | 51.8% | ||
| 5/9/2020 | 8,952 | 4,691 | 52.4% | ||
| 5/10/2020 | 9,116 | 4,825 | 52.9% | ||
| 5/11/2020 | 9,255 | 4,855 | 52.5% | ||
| 5/12/2020 | 9,310 | 4,890 | 52.5% | ||
| 5/13/2020 | 9,508 | 4,953 | 52.1% | ||
| 5/14/2020 | 9,702 | 5,016 | 51.7% | ||
| 5/15/2020 | 10,138 | 5,259 | 51.9% | ||
| 5/16/2020 | 10,138 | 5,259 | 51.9% | ||
| 5/17/2020 | 10,249 | 5,319 | 51.9% | ||
| 5/18/2020 | 10,356 | 5,376 | 51.9% | ||
| 5/19/2020 | 10,435 | 5,408 | 51.8% | ||
| 5/20/2020 | 10,586 | 5,368 | 50.7% | 4,295 | 40.6% |
| 5/21/2020 | 10,747 | 5,410 | 50.3% | 4,349 | 40.5% |
| 5/22/2020 | 10,843 | 5,456 | 50.3% | 4,502 | 41.5% |
| 5/23/2020 | 10,985 | 5,485 | 49.9% | 4,665 | 42.5% |
| 5/24/2020 | 11,081 | 5,581 | 50.4% | 4,720 | 42.6% |
| 5/25/2020 | 11,133 | 5,619 | 50.5% | 4,755 | 42.7% |
| 5/26/2020 | 11,144 | 5,654 | 50.7% | 4,768 | 42.8% |
| 5/27/2020 | 11,191 | 5,684 | 50.8% | 4,793 | 42.8% |
| 5/28/2020 | 11,339 | 5,721 | 50.5% | 4,871 | 43.0% |
| 5/29/2020 | 11,401 | 5,751 | 50.4% | 4,804 | 42.1% |
| 5/30/2020 | 11,531 | 5,828 | 50.5% | 4,858 | 42.1% |
It was definitely a bad few weeks back in April. Higher than usual deaths.
Was it worth locking down most of the country? Even putting aside the lack of evidence that lockdowns save lives – and mounting evidence that they may kill people – this very unfortunate death toll must e put in some perspective. This may end up being worse than the data so far suggest, but as it stands now through Week 19 (ending May 9), there were 55,425 more deaths in the 2019-2020 flu season than there were in 2017-2018. That’s a 3.05% increase. As horrible as any death is, this is not the end of the world. We didn’t need to destroy our society over it.
Because the COVID-19 virus affects mainly the sick and elderly, particularly in LTC facilities, it should be interesting to see how this plays out through the end of the flu season. I wonder if some people who succumbed to COVID related deaths may have simply died a few weeks or months earlier than if they hadn’t caught the virus. If that’s the case you may see deaths in future months drop below average.
Of course, if the lockdowns cause as many deaths as some speculate, the death count could end up being much higher than normal. Let’s hope that is not the case. We shall see.
72,855 excess days from 2/1 through 5/9. 76,592 reported COVID deaths.
USA Totals:
State Comparisons:
New Jersey:
Wisconsin:
Somehow the overall confirmed death count went up by 62 while the confirmed death count of LTC residents went down by 67. Meanwhile reported LTC deaths went up by 30. Numbers certainly seem questionable, but here we are. Over the past 9 days, the death count on the NJ website has increased by 815 while the confirmed LTC deaths have increased by 509
| DATE | TOTAL | LTC REPORTED | % | LTC CONFIRMED | % |
| 5/6/2020 | 8,549 | 4,261 | 49.8% | ||
| 5/7/2020 | 8,549 | 4,261 | 49.8% | ||
| 5/8/2020 | 8,801 | 4,556 | 51.8% | ||
| 5/9/2020 | 8,952 | 4,691 | 52.4% | ||
| 5/10/2020 | 9,116 | 4,825 | 52.9% | ||
| 5/11/2020 | 9,255 | 4,855 | 52.5% | ||
| 5/12/2020 | 9,310 | 4,890 | 52.5% | ||
| 5/13/2020 | 9,508 | 4,953 | 52.1% | ||
| 5/14/2020 | 9,702 | 5,016 | 51.7% | ||
| 5/15/2020 | 10,138 | 5,259 | 51.9% | ||
| 5/16/2020 | 10,138 | 5,259 | 51.9% | ||
| 5/17/2020 | 10,249 | 5,319 | 51.9% | ||
| 5/18/2020 | 10,356 | 5,376 | 51.9% | ||
| 5/19/2020 | 10,435 | 5,408 | 51.8% | ||
| 5/20/2020 | 10,586 | 5,368 | 50.7% | 4,295 | 40.6% |
| 5/21/2020 | 10,747 | 5,410 | 50.3% | 4,349 | 40.5% |
| 5/22/2020 | 10,843 | 5,456 | 50.3% | 4,502 | 41.5% |
| 5/23/2020 | 10,985 | 5,485 | 49.9% | 4,665 | 42.5% |
| 5/24/2020 | 11,081 | 5,581 | 50.4% | 4,720 | 42.6% |
| 5/25/2020 | 11,133 | 5,619 | 50.5% | 4,755 | 42.7% |
| 5/26/2020 | 11,144 | 5,654 | 50.7% | 4,768 | 42.8% |
| 5/27/2020 | 11,191 | 5,684 | 50.8% | 4,793 | 42.8% |
| 5/28/2020 | 11,339 | 5,721 | 50.5% | 4,871 | 43.0% |
| 5/29/2020 | 11,401 | 5,751 | 50.4% | 4,804 | 42.1% |
From 2/1 through 5/9, there were 71,142 “excess” deaths and 75,997 deaths attributed to COVID. The data are continuing to update, but what we have so far suggests the following points and accompanying questions
Not sure if we’ll ever be sure of the answers to these questions. But the idea lockdowns have saved lives is not a slam dunk by any means given the CDC data so far.
USA Totals:
State Comparisons. A few points:
New Jersey.
Wisconsin
7th straight day where more than half of the increase in confirmed COVID deaths can be accounted for by LTC residents:
| DATE | TOTAL | LTC REPORTED | % | LTC CONFIRMED | % |
| 5/6/2020 | 8,549 | 4,261 | 49.8% | ||
| 5/7/2020 | 8,549 | 4,261 | 49.8% | ||
| 5/8/2020 | 8,801 | 4,556 | 51.8% | ||
| 5/9/2020 | 8,952 | 4,691 | 52.4% | ||
| 5/10/2020 | 9,116 | 4,825 | 52.9% | ||
| 5/11/2020 | 9,255 | 4,855 | 52.5% | ||
| 5/12/2020 | 9,310 | 4,890 | 52.5% | ||
| 5/13/2020 | 9,508 | 4,953 | 52.1% | ||
| 5/14/2020 | 9,702 | 5,016 | 51.7% | ||
| 5/15/2020 | 10,138 | 5,259 | 51.9% | ||
| 5/16/2020 | 10,138 | 5,259 | 51.9% | ||
| 5/17/2020 | 10,249 | 5,319 | 51.9% | ||
| 5/18/2020 | 10,356 | 5,376 | 51.9% | ||
| 5/19/2020 | 10,435 | 5,408 | 51.8% | ||
| 5/20/2020 | 10,586 | 5,368 | 50.7% | 4,295 | 40.6% |
| 5/21/2020 | 10,747 | 5,410 | 50.3% | 4,349 | 40.5% |
| 5/22/2020 | 10,843 | 5,456 | 50.3% | 4,502 | 41.5% |
| 5/23/2020 | 10,985 | 5,485 | 49.9% | 4,665 | 42.5% |
| 5/24/2020 | 11,081 | 5,581 | 50.4% | 4,720 | 42.6% |
| 5/25/2020 | 11,133 | 5,619 | 50.5% | 4,755 | 42.7% |
| 5/26/2020 | 11,144 | 5,654 | 50.7% | 4,768 | 42.8% |
| 5/27/2020 | 11,191 | 5,684 | 50.8% | 4,793 | 42.8% |
| 5/28/2020 | 11,339 | 5,721 | 50.5% | 4,871 | 43.0% |
Looks like the % on the CDC website I’ve been using to calculate “Expected” deaths have been adjusted somehow. Not sure what’s going on, but using their data here’s the latest. It’s indicating that from 2/1 through 5/9, there were 59,707 “excess deaths” (deaths above previous 3 years’ average). That’s compared to 73,513 COVID deaths.
USA Totals:
State comparisons:
New Jersey:
Wisconsin:
Not sure why it’s still a week behind, but they finally updated it. Nothing really unexpected. The peak never got as bad as the modelers feared (and remember this is the 4/2 model which was already revised down). But the decline in daily deaths has been much slower than the modelers predicted.
As I’ve stated before, I believe this is due to the large number of nursing home deaths that have continued for some time after the overall rate of hospitalizations and percent of positive tests began declining. Of course, these same modelers way overpredicted hospitalizations causing several governors to panic and force COVID positive patients into nursing homes spreading the disease and driving up the death count. These same governors are now using these high death counts (while conveniently downplaying the fact they’re mainly in LTC facilities at this point) to continue their insane lockdown policies.
