NJ LTC deaths update 6.29.20

Since 5/21 NJ has reported an increase in “confirmed” COVID deaths of 2,535. They’ve reported an increase in “confirmed” COVID deaths of LTC residents of 2,085 which would suggest they account for 82% of the increase in that timeframe.

Here’s a graph of the overall daily increases in COVID deaths back to early May. I would note that I occasionally fail to update this so the days after some 0 totals likely have 2 or 3 days’ worth of reported deaths:

NJ LTC deaths update

LTC deaths still seem to account for most of the increases. Increases seem to be declining as well. So this is basically all good news. The virus is less and less of a threat in the Garden State and almost no threat to the average healthy person.

Cuomo has no shame

The governor of NY is criticizing the Florida governor for reopening his state:

“I say to them all, look at the numbers. You played politics with this virus and you lost.”

This from a guy who forced nursing homes to accept COVID positive patients which likely doubled the total deaths in his state. Meanwhile, Florida protected their nursing homes and had a fraction of the deaths. This nonsense he’s blabbing about has to do with cases, but we already know there are millions of cases of people who had mild or no symptoms. Who cares? You test more you get more cases. Deaths are what matter and Cuomo failed his state miserably. The fact that he would criticize other states is disgusting. He would resign in shame immediately if he wasn’t an evil sociopath.

Model update 6.25.20

Not a huge change since last time. Obviously the June CDC data is way behind, but I find it interesting that the April and May numbers differ much at all. This model was updated in late June with these numbers. You’d think April and most of May would just about match.

NJ LTC deaths update 6.24.20

Since NJ started tracking “lab-confirmed” COVID deaths in LTC facilities rather than just the reported number on 5/20, there has been an increase in total “lab-confirmed” COVID deaths of 2,363. There has been an increase in “lab-confirmed” LTC COVID deaths of 1,953. So that would suggest deaths of LTC residents have accounted for 83% of all COVID deaths in the past month.

Model Update 6.23.20

The IHME model apparently thinks there will be a second wave of Coronavirus, and the downward trend in deaths will slow and then start rising again in July without ever falling below 600 deaths in a single day. They’re now projecting 201,129 COVID deaths by 10/1. Seems as though the theory is that relaxing social distancing will lead to more deaths. Should be interesting to test this out. Hopefully they’re wrong because obviously we don’t want people to die, and assuming politicians don’t reinstate lockdowns, that would suggest they’re unnecessary. After all the original models assumed because of lockdowns we’d be down to almost 0 deaths by now.

I’m going to compare the model as of today 6/23 to the CDC data moving forward. There’s a lag in the CDC data, but at least they let me export it easily.

NJ LTC deaths update 6.22.20

Didn’t get a chance to update this over the weekend, but still seeing the same trends. LTC deaths are growing and accounting for almost all the increase in COVID deaths.

Since 5/21 the total confirmed COVID deaths have increased by 2,284 in NJ. The total confirmed LTC deaths in NJ have increased by 1,885. That’s 83% of the total increase.