Calm response to 1957 Asian Flu

This is a great piece comparing the unwarranted hysteria of 2020’s COVID outbreak to the 1957 Pandemic that is estimated to have killed 116,000 Americans (equivalent to 200,000 if you adjust for population size). Most people who lived through it are unaware it ever occurred, much like the 1968 Hong Kong Flu.

I especially like this old NYT headline:

Let us all keep a cool head about Asian influenza as the statistics on the spread and the virulence of the disease begin to accumulate.” ~New York Times editorial, Sept. 17, 1957

And this conclusion is spot-on:

What we didn’t have back then were mass media, social media, and the incurable virus of evidence-free panic propagation to induce an epidemic of fear and paranoia. While this current virus is worse than recent flu-like epidemics this generation, it is much more in line with the 1957 Asian flu and its sister, the 1968 Hong Kong flu. If you lived during the time, you most assuredly remember Woodstock, which occurred during the peak of the Hong Kong flu, but you are unlikely to remember the epidemic.

Don’t trust Worldometers

Both COVID skeptics and (especially) hysterics like to follow Worldometers and see if it will back up their respective narratives. People like it because it gives daily updates while the CDC data lags for weeks. Most people are aware they don’t get the actual date of deaths and are going by reported date. That should be obvious by the fact that the weekend totals are always low and then we see a big jump every Tuesday. But we’re told to follow the 7-day moving average to see the real trends.

However, their April numbers are significantly lower than the CDC and since May their death totals have exceeded those of the CDC. The only exception being the week ending July 4 when governments were slow on reporting due to the holiday. So states would appear to be reviewing death certificates from March and April and adding COVID as a cause. Worldometers is then reporting this on the current date. This seems to have been going on since early May. This is inflating the Worldometers totals further driving the hysteria.

You will, of course, notice that there has been an increase in COVID deaths in July even on the CDC data. This is concerning. It would seem this small increase is the “lag in deaths” we were hearing from the cases increasing in certain states back in June.

However, as I’ve been saying for months now, we should look at overall deaths/excess deaths. These continue to decline despite the recent rise in COVID deaths. It’s too early to tell for sure if this trend will last, but we need to keep an eye on it. As it stands now this increase in reported COVID deaths seems a bit suspicious.

Does the American State have a legitimacy crisis?

We hear this every so often that the US is on the verge of breaking up. Most people usually dismiss it, and in fact, when you’re dealing with the most powerful State in the history of the world, it does seem hard to believe it can just cease to exist or even lose any significant physical territory. However, each time it comes up in public debate, it seems a little more realistic, a little more closer to reality. All empires end. When will this one have run its course?

When you combine COVID, the attempted Deep State coup against Trump, the media’s descent into being nothing but a Democrat Party propaganda machine, and the race war our political establishment is currently trying to foment, the USA seems to have taken a big step forward toward eventual dissolution. I think most conservatives, libertarians, and politically right-leaning Americans currently living in red states, may indeed welcome a breakup from the D.C. establishment and the Democratic Party.

James Bovard wrote a very interesting piece today. Here are a few of the better quotes:

The election will occur amidst the vast economic devastation inflicted by a political class that responded to COVID by seizing almost unlimited power. And Deep State federal agencies have already proven that they will trample the law to sabotage election results. 

Delayed election results and potentially millions of disputed ballots could minimize support for whoever is designated the next president. 

What’s the point of voting for politicians who merely need to invoke dubious statistical extrapolations to sow death and economic devastation?

Deep State federal agencies are a Godzilla that have established their prerogative to undermine if not overturn election results. The FBI has achieved saint-like status among many liberals for its efforts to topple Trump. 

Unfortunately, both Democrats and Republicans appear willing to bankrupt the nation to perpetuate their own power.

It’s not a very long article, and I encourage everyone to read the whole thing here.

Our rulers are sociopaths

The governors most enthusiastic about lockdowns seem to completely lack empathy. They just bark orders at their daily press conferences oblivious to the despair they’re causing all over their states.

This is a great article by Jeff Tucker. This passage particularly hits home to me:

With day-to-day human communication in the presence of uncertainty, there would be some admission of the possibility of being wrong, of mistakes made, of the difficulty of knowing, of the limits of information to make informed decisions, of the pain wrought through such disruptive governance. 

And this one:

They worry that this realization is going to spread. Then they will be held accountable, maybe not right away but eventually. And this is rather terrifying to them. Thus are they spending their days trying to forestall this moment of truth in hopes that the mess they made will eventually go away and they escape blame. 

Excess deaths update 7.27.20

CDC data indicate 3 weeks in a row with a slight increase in COVID deaths even as overall and excess deaths have continued to decline. We need to keep an eye on this. If this trend continues it certainly suggests one of these possibilities:

  1. They’re inflating COVID deaths. Someone dies of an underlying or unrelated condition and they slap a COVID label on it because they had a positive test or some flu-like symptoms.
  2. Most of the death count back in April and May consisted of sick and elderly people who died a few weeks or months earlier because they caught COVID than they would have without it. So with less of the “usual” dying people in July, the overall deaths continue to decline and we’re not seeing much of an “excess” despite a few thousand people dying from COVID each week.

Or it could be a combination of the two. Or the data could update and we’ll see a rise in overall deaths at some point. But we need to watch this closely because the media presents everything about this virus in the worst light possible.